Robust Inference Policies

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to as­ sess the extent to which different inference procedures robustly output reasonable belief values in the context of increasing levels of judgmental imprecision. It was found that, when com­ pared to an equal-weights linear model, the Bayesian procedures are more likely to deduce strong support for a hypothesis. But, the Bayesian procedures are also more likely to strongly support the wrong hypothesis. Bayesian techniques are more powerful, but are also more error prone.